Primeira Liga

How this works

FootySim uses a custom Monte Carlo simulation engine to project match results and the final outcome of the season.

1. Team Power (Elo Ratings): Every team is assigned a power rating based on the Elo system. This rating reflects their current real-world strength based on historical results, opponent quality, and recent form.

2. Match Probabilities & xG: For every unplayed fixture, the engine compares the Elo ratings of the two competing teams. This difference dictates the win probabilities, which are then converted into an Expected Goals (xG) metric for each team, anchored to a real-world average of 2.77 goals per match.

3. Scoreline Generation: The engine feeds these xG values into independent Poisson distributions to generate a realistic final scoreline. It also applies a Dixon-Coles adjustment—a statistical modifier that accounts for late-game human psychology (like "parking the bus" or pushing for a late equalizer) to ensure mathematically accurate draw rates.

4. Dynamic Tournament Momentum: The simulation is path-dependent. As the engine simulates through the schedule, teams dynamically gain or lose Elo points after every simulated match. A team that goes on a giant-killing run in the group stage becomes mathematically stronger before the knockout rounds.

5. The 10,000 Simulations: The engine plays out the remainder of the tournament 10,000 times. Every match is decided by a random number generator weighted by these dynamic metrics. It then tallies up where each team finished across all 10,000 simulated universes to generate the final percentage chances and match probabilities shown across the site.